Benefits & evidence: financial
Obesity.....cycling and walking halve the amount of obesity, diabetes & heart disease. Obesity and diabetes are likely to cost £4.25m/year in Aston, at today's prices, in 2015...as it will then account for 17% of the healthcare budget, and this money will have to come out of the health care budget, reducing the amount spent on other conditions.
|If 50% cycled or walked these costs
would be halved.
Similarly, for every 273 (1%) extra cyclists in Aston, there would be £21,000/year less needed treating obesity, and nearly 273 fewer people obese.
|Road traffic accidents cause about 3 deaths or serious injuries in Aston each year. The World Heath Authority notes that if speeds were 10mph slower, risks would be halved, that is 1.5/year. In addition, slower speeds make cycling and walking safer and more popular.|
|Each death/serious injury costs the state £1m,
so it is likely Aston would save £1.5m. This money could be spent
on other social services, education, or housing.
Slowing speeds largely needs a culture change, with publicity, and could be achieved cheaply, although spending on traffic calming would be needed. See the graph.
Crime costs Aston £25m/year, and there are about 50 serious crimes a year in the ward. It is known that exercise such as cycling and walking reduces criminal behaviour by about 33%. On this basis, every 1% increase in cycling/walking would be likely to save £80,000/year in Aston by reducing crime.
Mental health costs £3m/year in Aston. Again, exercise reduces depression and improves mental health in 40-50%. This would be likely to result in mental health savings of £30,000 for every 273 (1%) increase in cycling or walking in Aston. In addition, there would be less time off sick, and much less family disruption.
Substance abuse and drug use costs may be expected to be about £25m/year
in Aston. Yet substance abuse is reduced by 30% in those that exercise
Once again, savings could be expected to be £100,000 year for each 273 (1%) increase in cycling or walking, with less smoking, binge drinking, and other drug use.
Education expenditure is £25m/year in Aston. Educational achievement increases 18% with sports programs, so the ward would gain nearly £2.25m in extra educational value and qualifications if the number of people taking regular exercise increased by 50%, or about £50,000 increase in achievement for each 1% (273) extra walking or cycling.
|savings from||amount per ward saved each year for each 1% increase in cycling||
potential savings 50% cycling per year
|numbers reduced for each 1% increase in cycling||
potential numbers 50% cycling
41 people (obesity reduction 2006)
52 fewer diabetic (by 2017)
|1025 people (obesity reduction 2006)
2600 fewer diabetic (by 2017)
|serious road traffic accidents with speeds 10% lower||£1.5m||1.5||1.5|
|substance and drug use||£100,000||£5m|
|education||£50,000 increase in value||£2.25m increase in value|
|for each 1% increase with speeds 10mph slower||
|a cycling network with 50% cycling rates:
this could be achieved with a high quality network @£30,000/km; about £10m one off expenditure (with a little continuing expenditure for training etc)
Obesity..reduction of reach 1% cycling
- 27,432 people, ~30% obesity at present = 8200 people obese
- a1% increase in cycling (=82), and their obesity will be halved =41 fewer people obese
Mental health problems..reduction of reach 1% cycling
- 27,432 people, ~10% mental health problems at present = 2743 people with mental health problems
- a1% increase in cycling (=27), and their obesity will be 40% less=11 fewer people with mental health problems
Employment rates in all the cycling cities is high. As the environment becomes more pleasant, more people would be be likely to move here. There would need to be positive efforts to increase jobs in the 'sustainable' industries, such as home insulation and building, and manufacture of energy saving devices, to counteract some loss of jobs related to the running of cars (European Union).